SSISI Annual Symposium – Ireland 2040

The Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland will host its annual symposium this Thursday, 26th April 2018 at 5:30pm, in Chartered Accountants House, 47/49 Pearse Street, Dublin 2.

The topic of the symposium is: ‘Where’ will the Economy be in 2040? Delivering on the National Planning Framework

Speakers include:

  • Professor Henry Overman, London School of Economics and Director of the What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth
  • Paul Hogan, Senior Adviser at Department of Housing, Planning & Local Government and project manager for the National Planning Framework
  • Dr. Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor of Economics at Trinity College Dublin

As ever, non-members are welcome to attend and participate in the discussion.

One reply on “SSISI Annual Symposium – Ireland 2040”

Its not a question of ‘where’ the Irish economy will be in 2040 – but ‘how’ the Irish economy is actually going to get there. If we assume that the Irish economy is actually expanding at a 3% p/a, compounding, and we also assume that that rate-of-growth can be sustained for the next 23 years – then our economy in 2040 will be double what it is now. I doubt that that is physically possible. Were would we get the massive amounts of raw materials and energy supply to achieve such an outcome, since doubling our economy implies that we must consume more raw materials and energy from now until 2040 than the accumulated total of these items that we have already consumed during the last 160 years! That’s an awful lot of stuff.

Does this leave us with the prospect of a rate of economic growth significantly below 3%? And if so, what then?

We have three major economic problems: public healthcare; residential housing; and primary and secondary education. All of these are showing significant signs of internal strain. All are funded through taxation – with a little help on the side. If one of these should ‘snap’ there will be ugly political consequences. We will actually get to 2040, but in what shape will we be when we do get there?

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